News:
July 23, 2026
As Ghana approaches the July 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review, a member of the Minority Kojo Oppong Nkrumah faces a pivotal moment. Having established himself as a formidable fiscal critic since 2025. The question now is whether he can transition from opposition rhetoric to evidence-based accountability.
His previous arguments have centred on four pillars: unrealistic revenue targets, unsustainable spending commitments, inflation’s limited impact on living standards, and the costly defence of the cedi. These positions have been consistent, but consistency alone won’t move the national conversation forward.
The Mid-Year Review offers an opportunity to test whether the 2026 Budget’s promises have translated into measurable outcomes. Here’s where Hon. Oppong Nkrumah should focus his scrutiny.
1. Revenue Performance: The Critical Test
Why this matters: Since 2025, Hon. Oppong Nkrumah has maintained that government revenue assumptions are fundamentally unrealistic, with underperformance inevitably forcing expenditure cuts.
Key questions to ask:
Has revenue growth improved?
Government should provide:
· First-half 2026 tax revenue outturns
· Actual revenue-to-GDP ratio
· Variance against budgeted targets
· Sources of revenue growth
If revenue continues to lag despite new levies, this would validate his earlier warnings.
What about non-tax revenue?
Following the removal of several taxes, Hon. Oppong Nkrumah should request:
· Updated non-tax revenue figures
· Year-on-year comparisons (2024-2026)
· Revenue losses from tax removals
· Government’s replacement strategy
Revenue efficiency vs. new taxes
Rather than debating tax policy, investigate:
· Tax compliance rates
· GRA collection efficiency
· Tax expenditures (exemptions and waivers)
· Revenue leakages in customs and mining
This shifts the discussion from politics to public finance management.
2. The “Big Push” Programme: Promises vs. Delivery
Why this matters: This has been one of Hon. Oppong Nkrumah’s most consistent criticisms—questioning funding adequacy, expenditure credibility, and whether old projects are being rebranded as new initiatives.
Areas for scrutiny:
Actual vs. announced expenditure
Government should disclose:
· Project-by-project disbursement data
· Contractors paid and timelines
· Physical completion rates
· Funding sources
Job creation outcomes
The programme’s credibility hinges on whether jobs materialised. Request:
· Number of jobs created
· Permanent vs. temporary positions
· Regional distribution
· Private-sector vs. public works jobs
Cost-benefit analysis
A powerful accountability metric: How much has government spent per job reportedly created?
3. Inflation and Cost of Living: The Human Impact
Why this matters: Hon. Oppong Nkrumah’s strongest communication theme has been: “People judge cost of living, not inflation.”
Areas to explore:
Real household purchasing power
Test inflation reports against:
· Real wages and disposable income
· Household expenditure surveys
· Consumer confidence indicators
Food inflation
He has repeatedly highlighted structural causes—storage deficiencies, transport bottlenecks, and agricultural logistics. Ask:
· What investments have been made in storage infrastructure?
· Have post-harvest losses declined?
· Food inflation vs. headline inflation trends?
Utility and fuel costs
Assess cumulative tariff increases since 2025 and their impact on:
· SMEs
· Manufacturing costs
· Household budgets
4. Defending the Cedi: Sustainability Questions
Why this matters: Perhaps the most underexplored area. Hon. Oppong Nkrumah claims approximately US$8 billion was used to stabilise the cedi, arguing this strategy may be temporary.
Questions to ask:
Reserve sustainability
Request current data on:
· Gross reserves
· Net reserves
· Reserve adequacy ratios
· Monthly intervention figures
What drives cedi stability?
A crucial question: Is the cedi stronger due to policy reforms, reserve interventions, gold earnings, reduced imports, or external factors?
This distinction matters for long-term sustainability.
Exit strategy
Government should explain:
· How long interventions can continue
· Whether a permanent framework exists
· What happens if gold prices decline
5. GANRAP and Gold Reserve Management: The Transparency Test
Why this matters: This may be the single area where Hon. Oppong Nkrumah could generate the greatest policy impact.
Issues to investigate:
Actual gains and losses
Government should disclose:
· Average purchase price
· Average sale price
· Transaction costs
· Realised gains/losses
Reserve composition
Request details on:
· Gold holdings
· Dollar reserves
· Other reserve assets
· Changes since 2024
Independent audit
He could call for:
· Auditor-General review
· Independent external audit
· Parliamentary reporting requirements
This would move the debate from allegations to evidence.
6. Public Debt and Financing Strategy
Why this matters: Interestingly, this area has received less attention in his documented comments.
Questions to ask:
· What’s the current debt-to-GDP ratio?
· Are domestic borrowing costs declining?
· How much of the budget goes to interest payments?
· Has debt restructuring generated meaningful fiscal space?
This would strengthen his fiscal credibility, as debt sustainability underpins every expenditure and revenue discussion.
7. Measuring Government Credibility: A Scorecard Approach
A useful framework would compare budget projections against actual outturns, allowing performance to be evaluated objectively rather than politically.
Strategic Recommendation
For the July 2026 Mid-Year Review, Hon. Oppong Nkrumah’s most impactful line of inquiry would focus on:
1. Revenue performance against target
2. Big Push expenditure and job creation outcomes
3. Real cost-of-living indicators versus inflation statistics
4. The true cost and sustainability of defending the cedi
5. Transparency and auditability of GANRAP and reserve management
6. Debt sustainability and interest-cost trends
If he grounds his intervention in hard data and outcome measurement rather than repeating earlier criticisms, he can shift the debate from whether government’s policies sounded credible in 2025 to whether they have actually delivered by mid-2026.
Kwaku Sakyi-Danso/Ghanamps.com